Lancet, one of the noted peer-reviewed journals around has suggested that India is poised to become the third-largest economy in the world in the course of the future. A promising development that might not take shape in the course of the immediate future but shall, as of 2050, take India to the third step on the podium also notes another interesting observation.
And it’s that in the process of breaking into the prestigious top-three out in the front, India shall lunge ahead of Japan. Now, that’s something that many would note with mighty regard and a sense of amazement.
Lancet, among the respected medical (weekly peer-reviewed) journals in the world happens to think that in the next three decades or so, India would have taken a driving seat where it comes to economic strength. It’s a position of ascendency, one would think, that would enable India to enjoy an even stronger position than it does in the world.
At the present, however, the state of the Indian economy is anything but steady or indicative of anything that would seem like it could change in the future. But then, that’s also largely due to the uninitiated damaged brought by COVID-19, a pandemic that got the world to come to a standstill. At a time where major or dominant world economies such as the United States or Germany are grappling with a lot many existential challenges, then just think how easy might things be for India, widely-acknowledged as among the fastest growing economies, one associated with bustle and excitement in the beating heart of Asia.
Having said the above, the following is what Lancet happened to highlight in their findings that emphasize on a brighter picture for the forthcoming decades:
Taking 2017 as the base year when India was the seventh largest economy, the Lancet paper said India will move up to become the fourth largest economy behind the US, China, Japan by 2030 and subsequently will overtake Japan in 2050. India is currently the fifth largest economy in the world, closely followed by France and UK.
Indian government’s aspirations are also on similar line. Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar in May this year said India should aspire to become the 3rd largest economy by 2047. However, the current estimates are less optimistic compared to some earlier projections, possibly reflecting the economic slowdown due to the coronavirus pandemic. A study by Japan Centre for Economic Research in December last year, just before the outbreak of the pandemic said Indian Economy would surpass Japan to become the third largest economy by 2029.
That being said, what do you reckon might happen; how soon can India find a way to leapfrog ahead of the challenges that are obstructing it to attain a place of normalcy, which could also mean recreating jobs and finding newer economic outlets that promote trade and commerce?