Some say it’s not that bad. Some say the worst is yet to come. And then there’s also a view that says, trouble is already there and has set in; been a while actually. Then there are those who say that it’s not too bad actually and that there’s no need to lose one’s hair over this.

recession in India during lockdown
©PTI

But that being told, a thing is certain. Mostly everyone is fretting over the issue of India’s financial health. And therefore, that there are divergent views coming in from all directions is not a surprise to be frank.

After all, we are all connected with the Indian economy in some way. It’s a food chain on which rests the lives and therefore, fate of hundreds of millions.

So if there’s a sluggish growth of sorts then it impacts not only the vegetable seller or the fruit vendor out in the streets but also the HR manager of an automotive firm, a tech-support of an IT-based start-up just the way it impacts the earnings of cricketers and those in the showbizz like ramp models or television film producers.

But that being said, just how serious is the case of the recession in an India already troubled to the hilt by the Coronavirus, a situation that’s led to a repeated usage of the term lockdown?

While the economists hold a certain view as do the researchers, the leading publications, at this point, do not necessarily point to a very positive view and the same can be understood by the following insights:

The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.

According to Dun & Bradstreet’s latest Economic Observer, the country’s economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government’s stimulus package.

Surely that doesn’t point to something outlandishly positive right? But that told, what does the Chief Economist of Dun & Bradstreet have to say on the said matter?

Here’s what Mr. Arun Singh had to say:

“The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announce.”

Having said that, a key question that arises at the moment pertains to the government’s response. How well can those who have the right to exercise power act on the critical concern right now?

Apparently, there’s a belief that India’s government has already begun working on the supply side of the economy. But that being said, what about the other factors and existential woes (if one can put it like that) that also come into play:

Won’t the loss of jobs – as evident at the moment- lead to a major struggle in corporations, regardless of stature and financial standing? Truth is that the Indian economy is bleeding. If the cut isn’t too deep then certainly it can be so if nothing’s done urgently.

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Unlike the developed nations of the world that draw strength of a mighty fallback of financial resources, does India have that kind of luxury? Maybe time’s right to quit playing games about the $5 trillion economy goal and get straight to work. Where it stands at the moment then a lot of repair work needs to be done first.

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