Bihar Elections: Will BJP Win or Nitish Will Retain its Glory
The election War began on 12th October and after two days the results will be out. Per the calculations of political pundits, BJP may win the majority that too with flying colors. However, Opinion Polls don’t agree to this opinion. So, let just analyze ‘who is going to win’?
Let us take a glance on the ‘ganit’ (mathematics) of Bihar Politics.
243 seats, five phases, each party have played their cards of casteism, COWISM, Religionlism and all the –ism of polticism, oops! Politics
All of a sudden from the past few months we became habitual of hearing that Bihar was actually synonymous to Jungle Raj, and now one should vote for hope in this election.
However, the combination of JDU and RJD has given a new twist to the open war, and has given new dimensions to the politics of Bihar. If we will look at the 2014 elections of Lok Sabha then from forty seats, BJP won 22 and JDU got 2. However, I guess Laloo did win the hearts of few more voters as there was an increase of 20.5 in his vote share, and he managed to secure four seats. Does it suggest Laloo’s charisma is felt again? Well answer is not ‘yes’ as there is huge difference between the election of center and the state. Laloo’s winning spree from 1990, 1995 and 2000 (we are considering Rabri’s win as Laloo’s win, for obvious reasons.) was broken by Nitish’s team. In 2010 once again ‘arrow’ extinguished ‘lantern’ from Bihar elections with the support of Jatin Manjhi.
Why all of a sudden Bihar state election has become pomegranate of India?
There is a saying in Hindi “ek anar sau bimar”, and Bihar has become that ‘anar’ and every politician wants to get the share of it “by hook or by crook”. The card of casteism is well played created and the end result is ‘a tug war’ between castes as Backward and Forward. Even new categories have been added to it, like MAHADALIT.
In the name of politics, politicians have crossed all limits of accusations, ‘Maryada’ ‘Laxman Rekha’ or what one would like to call as boundary of ethics and morals, yes we know and agree that accusations have been the part and parcel of Indian Politics, however this time it is really hard to digest, few quotes to prove it:
“Amit Shah killed thousands of people. He is a ‘jallad'”
– RABRI DEVI
“BJP stands for Bharat Jalao Party”
– RJD CHIEF LALU PRASAD
How did “shaitan” (devil) find Lalu Prasad? I want to know how the “shaitan” got the address (of Lalu) … he recognizes that it was the “shaitan” in a similar manner as people recognize their relatives. – NARENDERA MODI
The prominent reason why Bihar elections have become the prestige issue of our politicians is due to its stake holdings in Indian Politics, after Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. Previously Magadha, Mithila, Anga and Vaishali were the proud regions of Bihar for various reasons, this time Seemanchal, Mithilanchal and Kosi regions are proving to be BLOCKS of Political Chess through which they will move on for other ‘board squares’ of success, like Uttar Pradesh.
West Bengal is a tough terrain to cross due to the fact that West Bengal is the citadel of TMC and Left, what is left is ‘Bihar’, and this is the prominent reason that BJP is leaving no stone unturned to make it in Bihar.
Having said that caste does play an important role in politics of Bihar, that’s why caste calculations have been calculated this time also.
OBC share of Bihar is 51% and BJP is actively showing Modi OBC status to win the elections that’s why there share of seats is 159 out of 243.With it BJP opened BJP OBC ‘Morcha’, which is going to add some seats in BJP’s Kitty. OBC also has Extremely Backward class which makes 30% of this segment, which is been promised some extra benefits like reservations and scholarships by Nitish Kumar and in UPA, JDU has share of 101 seats equivalent to RJD, which again will create repercussions in voters, as from past so many years Nitish and Laloo were on different sides, so do their voters. If there will be a situation in front of JDU supporter to vote then he will have the option of RJD then he will be perplexed and can choose third party which is most probably BJP as Shiv Sena due to their actions on ‘natives of Bihar’ in Maharashtra will repel the voter to vote for them. After OBC and EBC, 16.9 % share of Dalits, and Jatin Manjhi who is supporting NDA already has already declared that Mahadalits should vote NDA to come out of poverty and discrimination. So, ‘Dalits and Mahadalits’ divison can effect on the voting and as BSP is contesting in all 243 seats, division is likely to happen. Muslims and Forward Caste includes 16.9% and 15 % respectively and Owaisi has accused parties on religion lines, six candidates of All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen are trying their luck in this election.
Forward and Backward castes seems to be crucial point, however, this election will be won by any party on caste or religion lines then development, equality, secularism etc. will find place in books only. This election if won on these lines will definitely create a rift between these castes which will damage the thread of fraternity.
We need to know this voting percentage which has crossed the half-century percentage during elections is due to mass voting from rural areas. For them development is ‘bicycle’ which benefitted girls of Bihar, and later boys were also included in the ‘Mukhyamantri Cycle Yojana’. For them it is the ‘scholarships’ which there kids get. For them the ‘road’ which connects them with town is not development. For ‘voters’ the Politician who provide materials as perks instead of ideologies will get the share of the cake, Nitish’s party should have contested from all the seats instead of ‘mahaghatbandhan’. The development that Bihar has seen in Nitish’s era should have been the trump card. Laloo do have his share of votes, however, if development is for what parties are contesting then, they should stick to their own grounds. These two politicians can tip the balance of power and the opinion polls are using smoke and mirrors to create more bewilderment.
Bihar has certainly become the arena and voters have played their part. The fate of Bihar is in the EVM’s now and 8th November will be the day when the victory will be declared. Along with Bihar all ‘talking heads’ are waiting for people’s verdict on Bihar.
07 November 2015
P.Rawat